Modern employment structures challenge traditional forms of worker organization, risking continued union decline despite ongoing interest in collective action
Trade unions have long played a central role in organizing workers and connecting their interests to broader political and social goals. But across Western Europe, union presence has declined sharply in recent decades. In our recent research, we examine how the rise of industrial robots is contributing to this trend, triggering a structural shift that weakens the foundations of union strength.
To explore this issue, we created a new dataset that tracks union membership rates across different regions and industries in 15 Western European countries between 2002 and 2018. To do this, we combined information from surveys and population data. First, we used survey responses to estimate how likely different types of workers are to be union members, depending on their age, gender, education, job, industry, and where they live. For instance, we looked at the likelihood of union membership for women in their 30s with a master’s degree working as doctors in the Lombardy region. Next, we used population data to figure out how common each worker type is in each region or industry, allowing us to calculate more accurate union membership rates at the local level. This approach gives us a much more detailed picture of union trends than what national averages alone can show.
Our findings show a clear pattern: regions more exposed to robot adoption experienced significant declines in union membership. Crucially, this decline is not primarily due to workers in automated sectors abandoning unions. Instead, it results from a broader compositional shift in employment: automation reduces jobs in traditionally unionized manufacturing sectors, and increases jobs in sectors where union presence is historically weak.
This distinction is important. Traditional industries like automotive manufacturing, which are highly affected by robotization, have long been strongholds of union activity. These sectors typically feature conditions that support union organizing, such as large workplaces, centralized production, and relatively stable jobs. In contrast, many of the growing service sectors, such as retail, hospitality, and personal care, are characterized by small firms, high job turnover, and precarious working conditions. These features make union organizing far more difficult.
In other words, automation does not just eliminate jobs. It shifts employment toward work environments that are structurally less favorable to unions. The decline in union density is therefore not simply a result of organizational failure or waning worker interest, but reflects deeper changes in the nature and structure of employment brought about by technological change.
This shift has broader implications. Unions do more than negotiate wages and working conditions. They have historically shaped labor market institutions, supported redistributive policies, and encouraged civic and political engagement. As unions weaken, we may see rising inequality, a diminished voice for workers, and shifting political dynamics, especially in regions hit hardest by industrial decline.
Ultimately, our research shows that the effects of automation extend well beyond the factory floor. They reach into the very institutions that shape the world of work. As automation continues to transform the labor market, ensuring that workers still have a voice becomes a pressing challenge.
The key question is whether new forms of worker organization, whether formal or informal, can emerge in the service economy and other hard-to-unionize sectors. If not, the erosion of union power is likely to continue, not because workers are less interested in collective action, but because the structure of modern employment makes it increasingly difficult.
© Paolo Agnolin, Massimo Anelli, Italo Colantone, and Piero Stanig
Paolo Agnolin is PhD candidate at Bocconi University, Italy and upcoming postdoctoral Associate at Princeton University, US
Massimo Anelli is Associate Professor at Bocconi University, Italy and IZA Research Fellow
Italo Colantone is Associate Professor of Economic Policy at Bocconi University, Italy
Piero Stanig is Associate Professor at Bocconi University, Italy
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We recognize that IZA World of Labor articles may prompt discussion and possibly controversy. Opinion pieces, such as the one above, capture ideas and debates concisely, and anchor them with real-world examples. Opinions stated here do not necessarily reflect those of the IZA.
Related IZA World of Labor content:
https://wol.iza.org/articles/the-consequences-of-trade-union-power-erosion by John T. Addison
https://wol.iza.org/articles/union-wage-effects by Alex Bryson
https://wol.iza.org/articles/employment-and-wage-effects-of-extending-collective-bargaining-agreements by Ernesto Villanueva and Effrosyni Adamopoulou
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