Right-wing populism rises with low-skill globalization but falls with high-skill trends, showing that skill divides—not globalization alone—drive political shifts
Populism is one of the biggest political and economic challenges of our time. Today, about one in four countries is run by populist leaders or coalitions. Populism threatens democracy and civil liberties, but it also comes with a major economic cost. On average, countries under populist rule see their GDP fall by 10% within 15 years compared to similar countries without populist governments. Understanding what fuels populism is therefore not only a political priority but also an economic one.
A common explanation is that populism is a backlash against globalization. Our research shows the story is more complex. It is not globalization itself that matters, but its skill dimension—who wins and who loses depending on the type of jobs and workers involved.
To study this, we built a dataset covering 55 countries and about 660 elections over 60 years. Instead of simply classifying parties as “populist” or “non-populist,” we scored their manifestos based on anti-elite language and promises to “protect the people.” From this, we created two measures: the share of votes going to populist parties and the average level of populist language across all parties.
The second measure shows not just the rise of populist parties, but also how populist ideas spread into mainstream politics. Both indicators tend to rise after economic crises. In the past decade, right-wing populism in particular has reached record levels, especially in Europe.
When we look at trade and migration, clear patterns emerge. Low-skill globalization, whether through imports or migration, tends to fuel populism. For example, when a country imports more goods that rely on low-skilled labor, voters increasingly support right-wing populist parties. This shows up both in the overall vote share going to populists and in the rising use of populist rhetoric across the political spectrum. Low-skilled immigration works a bit differently: it does not increase the total level of populism, but it changes its balance. Instead of boosting all populists equally, it shifts support away from left-wing populists and toward right-wing populists. In contrast, high-skill globalization, such as immigration of highly educated workers or imports of technology-intensive goods, has the opposite effect. These flows tend to reduce support for right-wing populism, suggesting that exposure to high-skill trade and migration reassures voters or creates economic benefits that weaken populist appeals.
Globalization’s impact is not uniform. It is amplified by crises, deindustrialization, and the spread of the internet, but weakened when countries trade with more partners and when migrants come from more diverse origins. The key point: globalization is not monolithic; its effects depend on the skills involved and on how societies adapt.
Looking forward, trade faces growing uncertainty due to protectionism and geopolitical tensions. At the same time, population growth in low-income countries will increase migration pressure on richer economies, likely lowering the average skill level of immigrants. If poorly managed, these trends could fuel more populism, with Europe again at the epicenter. But globalization does not have to lead to extremism. Policies that distinguish between high- and low-skilled workers, tie migration to skill acquisition, and support workers through economic change can help counter populism and restore confidence in democracy.
© Frédéric Docquier, Stefano Iandolo, Hillel Rapoport, Riccardo Turati, and Gonzague Vannoorenberghe
Frédéric Docquier is Vice Executive Director at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research, Luxembourg, and IZA Research Fellow.
Stefano Iandolo is Research Fellow at the University of Salerno, Italy
Hillel Rapoport is Professor at the Paris School of Economics, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, France, and IZA Research Fellow
Riccardo Turati is a Serra Hunter Assistant Professor at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain, and IZA Research Affiliate
Gonzague Vannoorenberghe is Professor at the Universite Catholique de Louvain, Belgium
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We recognize that IZA World of Labor articles may prompt discussion and possibly controversy. Opinion pieces, such as the one above, capture ideas and debates concisely, and anchor them with real-world examples. Opinions stated here do not necessarily reflect those of the IZA.
Related IZA World of Labor content:
https://wol.iza.org/articles/skill-based-immigration-economic-integration-and-economic-performance by Abdurrahman B. Aydemir
https://wol.iza.org/articles/superdiversity-social-cohesion-and-economic-benefits by Paul Spoonley
https://wol.iza.org/articles/labor-market-performance-and-the-rise-of-populism by Sergei Guriev
https://wol.iza.org/articles/public-attitudes-toward-immigration-determinants-and-unknowns by Mohsen Javdani
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