Far-right populism deters skilled immigration, drives brain drain, and fuels economic decline, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of stagnation and xenophobia
Our recent study highlights the significant and concerning impact of far-right voting and populist ideologies on migration trends. Using data from 55 countries and 628 elections spanning the period 1960–2018, our findings reveal that far-right voting disproportionately deters highly skilled immigrants. For instance, a 10-percentage-point increase in the far-right vote share leads to a 27% decline in high-skilled immigration and a 16% drop in low-skilled immigration. These patterns demonstrate how nationalist and anti-immigrant sentiments create a hostile environment, particularly deterring highly skilled workers who prioritize institutional stability and cultural openness.
On the emigration side, our analysis reveals a clear “brain drain” effect. Rising populism accelerates the outflow of highly skilled natives, while having little to no impact on low-skilled emigration. Specifically, right-wing populism leads to a rise in high-skilled emigration, as educated and globally connected individuals reject nationalist ideologies and seek opportunities abroad. This exodus deprives countries of critical talent needed for innovation, governance, and democracy, further depleting the domestic stock of human capital.
Importantly, these effects are not just the result of stricter immigration policies implemented by far-right governments. While such policies play a role, their impact is secondary to the broader political climate shaped by populist rhetoric. Anti-immigrant narratives and identity-based nationalism foster a hostile atmosphere, which discourages highly skilled migrants and causes educated natives to leave.
To better understand these patterns, we explored the historical roots of populism and how they interact with current economic crises. By examining past voting patterns for far-right parties (from 1900 to 1950) and the effects of economic downturns, we identified how long-standing cultural and political legacies, combined with modern challenges, sustain populist movements and shape migration trends.
Our findings reveal a vicious cycle. Far-right populism reduces the inflow of highly skilled immigrants essential for economic and social progress while driving out educated natives, further depleting a country’s talent pool. This loss of skills exacerbates economic stagnation, which in turn reinforces populist fears and anti-immigrant rhetoric. The result is a migration pattern that favors low-skilled workers over high-skilled ones, further validating populist claims, perpetuating xenophobia, and undermining economic growth.
This cycle poses a significant threat to liberal democracies. Politically, it entrenches exclusionary ideologies and weakens the foundations of open, inclusive institutions. Economically, it stifles innovation and long-term growth by diminishing the quality of governance and the labor force. Breaking this cycle requires policies that restore confidence in globalization, challenge nationalist narratives, and create a welcoming environment for both skilled migrants and native talent.
© Frédéric Docquier and Chrysovalantis Vasilakis
Frédéric Docquier is Research Program Leader (on Crossing Borders) at the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER), Professor of Economics at the Universite Catholique de Louvain, and IZA Research Fellow
Chrysovalantis Vasilakis is Associate Professor at Bangor University, Department of Business, and IZA Research Fellow
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We recognize that IZA World of Labor articles may prompt discussion and possibly controversy. Opinion pieces, such as the one above, capture ideas and debates concisely, and anchor them with real-world examples. Opinions stated here do not necessarily reflect those of the IZA.
Related IZA World of Labor content:
https://wol.iza.org/articles/labor-market-performance-and-the-rise-of-populism by Sergei Guriev
https://wol.iza.org/articles/public-attitudes-toward-immigration-determinants-and-unknowns by Mohsen Javdani
https://wol.iza.org/articles/smart-policy-toward-high-skill-emigrants by Michael A. Clemens
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