Evidence-based policy making

Policymakers often propose a minimum wage as a means of  raising incomes and lifting workers out of poverty. However, improvements in some young workers’ incomes due to a minimum wage come at a cost to others. Minimum wages reduce employment opportunities for youths and create unemployment. Workers miss out on on-the-job training opportunities that would have been paid for by reduced wages upfront but would have resulted in higher wages later. Youths who cannot find jobs must be supported by their families or by the social welfare system. Delayed entry into the labor market reduces the lifetime income stream of young unskilled workers.

Internal whistleblowing refers to the decision of an employee observing a misconduct in a firm to report it through an internal channel, i.e. via a hotline or directly to an identified ombudsman. Whistleblowing is highly beneficial to firms in various ways. However, employees may be reluctant to blow the whistle, both for moral reasons and due to a fear of retaliation. Consequently, a firm aiming at encouraging whistleblowing in order to save judicial or reputation costs, fines, and to spare its reputation should consider a wide range of possible measures in addition to developing a global ethical culture.

Increasing population age and low fertility rates, which characterize most modern societies, compromise the balance between people who can participate in the labor market and people who need care. This is a demographic and social issue that is likely to grow in importance for future generations. It is therefore crucial to understand what factors can positively influence fertility decisions. Policies related to the availability and costs of different kinds of childcare (e.g. formal care, grandparents, childminders) should be considered after an evaluation of their effects on the probability of women having children.

The shadow (underground) economy has a major impact on society and economy in many countries. People evade taxes and regulations by working in the shadow economy or by employing people illegally. On the one hand, this unregulated economic activity can result in reduced tax revenue and fewer public goods and services, lower tax morale and less tax compliance, higher control costs, and lower economic growth rates. But on the other hand, the shadow economy can be a powerful force fostering institutional change and boosting the overall production of goods and services in an economy. The shadow economy has implications on the political order and institutional change.

Entrepreneurs, creators of new firms, are a rare species. Even in innovation-driven economies, only 1–2% of the work force starts a business in any given year. Yet entrepreneurs, particularly innovative entrepreneurs, are vital to the competitiveness of the economy and may establish new jobs. The gains of entrepreneurship are only realized, however, if the business environment is receptive to innovation. In addition, policymakers need to prepare for the potential job losses that can occur in the medium term through “creative destruction” as entrepreneurs strive for increased productivity.

Randomized control trials are often considered the gold standard to establish causality. However, in many policy-relevant situations, these trials are not possible. Instrumental variables affect the outcome only via a specific treatment; as such, they allow for the estimation of a causal effect. However, finding valid instruments is difficult. Moreover, instrumental variables (IV) estimates recover a causal effect only for a specific part of the population. While those limitations are important, the objective of establishing causality remains; and instrumental variables are an important econometric tool to achieve this objective.

The Mincer equation—arguably the most widely used in empirical work—can be used to explain a host of economic, and even non-economic, phenomena. One such application involves explaining (and estimating) employment earnings as a function of schooling and labor market experience. The Mincer equation provides estimates of the average monetary returns of one additional year of education. This information is important for policymakers who must decide on education spending, prioritization of schooling levels, and education financing programs such as student loans.

Raising the minimum wage in developing countries could increase or decrease poverty, depending on labor market characteristics. Minimum wages target formal sector workers—a minority in most developing countries—many of whom do not live in poor households. Whether raising minimum wages reduces poverty depends not only on whether formal sector workers lose jobs as a result, but also on whether low-wage workers live in poor households, how widely minimum wages are enforced, how minimum wages affect informal workers, and whether social safety nets are in place.