August 14, 2017

India set to become the world’s most populous nation by 2024

India set to become the world’s most populous nation by 2024

India’s population will surpass that of China to become the world’s largest by 2024 if current growth trends persist, according to UN projections.

At present, India has a population of 1.34 billion compared to China’s 1.41 billion, but India has seen a fourfold increase over the past seventy years whereas China’s population doubled during the same period. The fertility rate in India now stands at 2.3 births per woman which is half of the figure seen in the 1980s, but population growth has been bolstered by a recent decline in the use of contraception and increasing life expectancy. Indians born today live on average to 68, which is 20 years longer than those born in the 1960s with a life expencancy of 44.

The Indian economy has also seen rapid growth in recent years, and is expected to expand at a rate of 7% this fiscal year. However, employment rates and job creation are not keeping up and the labor market is struggling with a lack of skilled workers.

Over 30% of young Indians are not in employment, education or training, a figure that is over double the OECD average and triple that of China. Nonetheless, an IBM survey this year found that talent acquisition is one of the biggest challenges faced by Indian start-ups, and 48% of Indian employers have difficulty hiring employees with necessary skills.

With the progression of automation and digital technology changing the landscape of the international labor market, significant action is required to prepare the Indian workforce for the future.

Writing for IZA World of Labor, David B. Audretsch states that shifting to “knowledge-based economic activity that focuses on innovation” gives countries “the potential to generate sustainable, high-quality jobs.” To do so, governments should invest in “creating new knowledge” through “education or training and skill accumulation” while additionally facilitating “spillovers from these knowledge investments.” Policies could include “financial incentives to promote entrepreneurship; offices of technology transfer; science parks and incubators to facilitate spillovers from university research; and conferences, workshops, and networking events to spur the exchange of ideas across individuals and firms.”