Transition and emerging economies

The transformation of economic systems from plan to market in transition and emerging economies has significant consequences not just for labor markets in those countries. The articles in this section offer summary lessons that can guide the development of institutions and labor reform policies in such countries, while also having wider relevance for other economies.

  • Worker displacement in transition economies and in China

    Knowing which workers are displaced in restructuring episodes helps governments devise the right equity- and efficiency-enhancing policies

    Hartmut Lehmann, May 2014
    Continuous enterprise restructuring is needed for the transition and emerging market economies to become and remain competitive. However, the beneficial effects of restructuring in the medium run are accompanied by large worker displacement. The costs of displacement can be large and long-lasting for some workers and for the economy. To devise the right policy interventions, governments need to fully understand which workers are displaced and what costs they bear.
  • Can government policies reverse undesirable declines in fertility?

    Government policies can have a modest effect on raising fertility—but broader social changes lowering fertility are stronger

    Elizabeth Brainerd, May 2014
    Since 1989 fertility and family formation have declined sharply in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Fertility rates are converging on—and sometimes falling below—rates in Western Europe, most of which are below replacement levels. Concerned about a shrinking and aging population and strains on pension systems, governments are using incentives to encourage people to have more children. These policies seem only modestly effective in countering the impacts of widespread social changes, including new work opportunities for women and stronger incentives to invest in education.
  • Redesigning pension systems

    The institutional structure of pension systems should follow population developments

    Marek Góra, May 2014
    For decades, pension systems were based on the rising revenue generated by an expanding population (demographic dividend). As changes in fertility and longevity created new population structures, however, the dividend disappeared, but pension systems failed to adapt. They are kept solvent by increasing redistributions from the shrinking working-age population to retirees. A simple and transparent structure and individualization of pension system participation are the key preconditions for an intergenerationally just old-age security system.
  • Informal employment in emerging and transition economies

    Reducing informality requires better enforcement, more reasonable regulation, and economic growth

    Fabián Slonimczyk, May 2014
    In developing and transition economies as much as half the labor force works in the informal sector (or “shadow economy”). Informal firms congest infrastructure and other public services but do not contribute the taxes needed to finance them. Informal workers are unprotected against such negative shocks as ill-health, but for certain groups there can be scarce opportunities to enter the formal sector. Reducing informality requires better enforcement, more reasonable regulation, and economic growth.
  • Formalization of jobs and firms in emerging market economies through registration reform

    Reforming registration might not be enough to persuade informal firms and workers to formalize—enforcement and other reforms may also be needed

    Melanie Khamis, May 2014
    Informal firms make up a major share of the economy in most developing countries. Expanding formalization could increase government tax revenues, boost firm profits and national income, and increase employee well-being by improving access to social security and health and workers’ benefits. Reforms to encourage firms to register include simplifying procedures, reducing the cost and time to register, and making more information available on registration procedures. Reforms might not result in higher registration and formalization. In some cases, better enforcement and wider development policies might be needed as well.
  • Post-enlargement emigration and new EU members’ labor markets

    Outmigration has contributed to increasing wages and decreasing unemployment in the new EU member states but may also cause skills shortages

    Anzelika Zaiceva, August 2014
    The recent EU enlargements into Central and Eastern Europe and increased labor mobility within the Union provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the labor market effects of emigration. Outmigration has contributed to higher wages for stayers, as well as to lower unemployment in the source country. However, emigration has also exacerbated skills shortages in some sectors, as well as mismatches between skills and jobs.
  • Employment protection legislation in transition and emerging markets

    Although market failures mean employment protection is necessary, excessive protection can be counterproductive

    Alexander Muravyev, September 2014
    Employment protection legislation aims to shield employees against unfair dismissal and earning reductions at the time of job loss. Theory suggests that employment protection stabilizes employment over cyclical upturns and downturns without necessarily increasing general unemployment. However, recent evidence from transition and emerging economies shows that employment protection legislation tends to raise unemployment among disadvantaged groups, particularly youth, and may increase informal work. Employment protection policies thus require careful consideration of their unintended effects.
  • International trade regulation and job creation

    Trade policy is not an employment policy and should not be expected to have major effects on overall employment

    L. Alan Winters, September 2014
    Trade regulation can create jobs in the sectors it protects or promotes, but almost always at the expense of destroying a roughly equivalent number elsewhere in the economy. At a product-specific or micro level and in the short term, controlling trade could reduce the offending imports and save jobs, but for the economy as a whole and in the long term, this position has neither theoretical support nor empirical evidence in its favor. Given that protection may have other—usually adverse—effects, understanding the difficulties in using it to manage employment is important for economic policy.
  • Female labor force participation in developing countries

    Improving employment outcomes for women takes more than raising labor market participation—good jobs are important too

    Sher Verick, September 2014
    While women’s labor force participation tends to increase with economic development, the relationship is not straightforward or consistent at the country level. There is considerably more variation across developing countries in labor force participation by women than by men. This variation is driven by a wide variety of economic and social factors, which include economic growth, education, and social norms. Looking more broadly at improving women’s access to quality employment, a critical policy area is enhancing women’s educational attainment beyond secondary schooling.
  • Flat-rate tax systems and their effect on labor markets

    Despite their theoretical benefits, flat taxes have been tried only in a few formerly socialist countries

    Andreas Peichl, October 2014
    The potential economic outcomes resulting from a flat rate of income tax have been the subject of an ongoing academic and political debate. Many observers have suggested that the introduction of a flat tax would be beneficial for a country’s economy, having a positive influence on the labor market and the gross domestic product by enhancing incentives to work, save, invest, and take risks. A flat tax also significantly simplifies income taxation which increases tax compliance and reduces tax planning, avoidance, and evasion. However, despite flat taxes being on the political agenda in many countries, in practice their implementation has mostly been restricted to the transition economy countries of Eastern Europe. There is no one single flat tax system in place in these countries though; one rate does not fit all.
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