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Quantitative policy evaluation can benefit from
a rich set of econometric methods for analyzing count data
Often, economic policies are directed toward
outcomes that are measured as counts. Examples of economic variables that
use a basic counting scale are number of children as an indicator of
fertility, number of doctor visits as an indicator of health care demand,
and number of days absent from work as an indicator of employee shirking.
Several econometric methods are available for analyzing such data, including
the Poisson and negative binomial models. They can provide useful insights
that cannot be obtained from standard linear regression models. Estimation
and interpretation are illustrated in two empirical examples.
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Data on rapid, unexpected refugee flows can credibly
identify the impact of migration on native workers’ labor market outcomes
Estimating the causal effect of immigration on the labor
market outcomes of native workers has been a major concern in the literature. Because
immigrants decide whether and where to migrate, immigrant populations generally consist
of individuals with characteristics that differ from those of a randomly selected
sample. One solution is to focus on events such as civil wars and natural catastrophes
that generate rapid and unexpected flows of refugees into a country unrelated to their
personal characteristics, location, and employment preferences. These “natural
experiments” yield estimates that find small negative effects on native workers’
employment but not on wages.
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Choosing the right performance measures can
inform and improve decision-making in policy and management
Measuring workers’ productivity is important
for public policy and private-sector decision-making. Due to the lack of a
general measure that captures workers’ productivity, firms often use one- or
multi-dimensional performance measures, which can be used, for example, to
analyze how different incentive systems affect workers’ behavior. The public
sector itself also uses measures to monitor and evaluate personnel, such as
teachers. Policymakers and managers need to understand the advantages and
disadvantages of the available metrics to select the right performance
measures for their purpose.
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More important than defining and measuring
informality is focusing on reducing its detrimental consequences
There are more informal workers than formal
workers across the globe, and yet there remains confusion as to what makes
workers or firms informal and how to measure the extent of it. Informal work
and informal economic activities imply large efficiency and welfare losses,
in terms of low productivity, low earnings, sub-standard working conditions,
and lack of social insurance coverage. Rather than quibbling over
definitions and measures of informality, it is crucial for policymakers to
address these correlates of informality in order to mitigate the negative
efficiency and welfare effects.
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Consistent measures of migration are needed to
understand patterns and impacts on labor market outcomes
International migration alters the
socio-economic conditions of the individuals and families migrating as well
as the host and sending countries. The data to study and to track these
movements, however, are largely inadequate or missing. Understanding the
reasons for these data limitations and recently developed methods for
overcoming them is crucial for implementing effective policies. Improving
the available information on global migration patterns will result in
numerous and wide-ranging benefits, including improved population
estimations and providing a clearer picture of why certain migrants choose
certain destinations.
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“Happiness data” may help assess the welfare
effects of a new labor market policy, like a change in benefit
generosity
Imagine a government confronted with a
controversial policy question, like whether it should cut the level of
unemployment benefits. Will social welfare rise as a result? Will some
groups be winners and other groups be losers? Will the welfare gap between
the employed and unemployed increase? “Happiness data” offer a new way to
make these kinds of evaluations. These data allow us to track the well-being
of the whole population, and also sub-groups like the employed and
unemployed people, and correlate the results with relevant policy
changes.
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Unlike most OECD countries, Israel experienced a
major increase in both employment and participation rates over the last 15
years
Following a decline in employment and
participation rates during the 1980s and 1990s, Israel managed to reverse
these trends during the last 15 years. This was accompanied by a substantial
decrease in unemployment. New labor force participants are mostly from the
low end of the education distribution, and many are relatively old. They
entered the labor force in response to cuts in welfare payments and
increases in the mandatory retirement age. Net household income for all
population groups has increased due to growth in labor income; however,
inequality between households has increased.
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There is potential value from incorporating
genetic data in the design of effective public policy, but also some
risks
Both the availability and sheer volume of data
sets containing individual molecular genetic information are growing at a
rapid pace. Many argue that these data can facilitate the identification of
genes underlying important socio-economic outcomes, such as educational
attainment and fertility. Opponents often counter that the benefits are as
yet unclear, and that the threat to individual privacy is a serious one. The
initial exploration presented herein suggests that significant benefits to
the understanding of socio-economic outcomes and the design of both social
and education policy may be gained by effectively and safely utilizing
genetic data.
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