Minimum wage policy and undeclared wages in transition economies

Increasing minimum wage can decrease labour tax evasion

Latvijas Banka and Stockholm School of Economics in Riga, Latvia

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Elevator pitch

How do minimum wage policies interact with labour tax evasion? In many transition economies, two features stand out: a large spike in the wage distribution at the minimum wage and widespread use of “envelope wages”—undeclared cash paid in addition to official earnings. This spike can be explained by the over-representation of tax-evading employers among minimum wage payers. In such a context, raising the minimum wage may serve as an enforcement tool by compelling evading firms to convert part of the undeclared pay into formal wages in order to comply with the legal minimum.

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Key findings

Pros

Raising the minimum wage reduces income underreporting among labour tax (and social security contributions)-evading firms.

Envelope wages provide an adjustment margin, allowing firms to comply without reducing total pay.

Firms that underreport wages are less likely to cut employment in response to a minimum wage hike.

Higher formal wages boost personal income tax and social security contribution revenues.

Cons

Not all firms engage in labour tax evasion making them more sensitive to minimum wage policy.

Minimum wage hikes can lead to job losses in firms that already fully comply with wage regulations.

Firms using envelope wages will lose an adjustment margin when facing negative shocks.

Employees of evading firms may face lower take-home pay if the tax burden is shifted onto them.

Author's main message

Labour tax evasion through income underreporting remains a significant challenge in Central and Eastern Europe. Many workers receiving envelope wages are officially recorded as earning exactly the minimum wage, creating a visible spike in the wage distribution. In this context, raising the minimum wage can function as a tax enforcement tool, prompting firms to formalize a larger share of compensation. However, not all firms evade taxes—some genuinely pay minimum wage. For policymakers, this creates a trade-off: while minimum wage hikes can improve compliance and increase tax revenue–and social security contributions–they may also impose costs on compliant firms and risk job losses in that segment.

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