Demographic change and migration

  • The Chinese labor market, 2000–2016

    The world’s second largest economy has boomed, but a rapidly aging labor force presents substantial challenges

    Junsen ZhangJia Wu, May 2018
    China experienced significant economic progress over the past few decades with an annual average GDP growth of approximately 10%. Population expansion has certainly been a contributing factor, but that is now changing as China rapidly ages. Rural migrants are set to play a key role in compensating for future labor shortages, but inequality is a major issue. Evidence shows that rural migrants have low-paying and undesirable jobs in urban labor markets, which points to inefficient labor allocation and discrimination that may continue to impede rural–urban migration.
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  • Fertility decisions and alternative types of childcare Updated

    Relative costs and family characteristics determine the effectiveness of different forms of childcare

    Increasing population age and low fertility rates, which characterize most modern societies, compromise the balance between people who can participate in the labor market and people who need care. This is a demographic and social issue that is likely to grow in importance for future generations. It is therefore crucial to understand what factors can positively influence fertility decisions. Policies related to the availability and costs of different kinds of childcare (e.g. formal care, grandparents, childminders) should be considered after an evaluation of their effects on the probability of women having children.
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  • Encouraging women’s labor force participation in transition countries Updated

    Government policies can stimulate female labor force participation if coherent and well thought-out

    Norberto Pignatti, November 2020
    Increasing women's labor force participation is important to sustainable economic development, especially in economies with highly educated women and an aging population. Women's participation varies across transition countries, driven by such economic and social factors as traditional views of gender roles and limited government support for caregivers. Still, in all countries there is clear scope for policies aimed at increasing women's participation. In particular, in countries where women's educational attainment is already high, policies to support a better work–life balance and female entrepreneurship look particularly promising.
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  • Migrant well-being after leaving transition economies

    Evidence is mixed on whether quality of life improves for migrants from post-socialist economies

    Milena Nikolova, October 2015
    Most comparative research suggests that immigrants from post-socialist countries earn less than natives, work in jobs for which they are overqualified, and may experience unhappiness compared with natives, other immigrants, and non-migrants. In contrast, one study presents causal evidence which shows that moving from transition economies to live in the West increases the incomes, life satisfaction, and freedom perceptions of those who move. Credibly assessing whether leaving transition economies improves movers’ quality of life remains a challenging empirical question.
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  • Family structure and children’s educational attainment in transition economies

    Access to education has been hampered by economic and family shocks in south-east Europe and countries of the former Soviet Union

    Lucia Mangiavacchi, October 2016
    Compared to developing economies, European transition economies had high levels of human capital when their transitions began, but a lack of resources and policies to protect poor families hampered children’s access to education, especially for non-compulsory school grades. Different phenomena associated with transition also negatively affected children’s education: e.g. parental absence due to migration, health problems, and alcohol abuse. These findings call for a greater policy focus on education and for monitoring of the schooling progress of children in special family circumstances.
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  • Should agricultural employment in transition economies be encouraged?

    Encouraging agricultural employment might reduce rural–urban migration and reduce hidden rural unemployment

    Zvi Lerman, January 2017
    The increase in agricultural employment in Central Asia and Trans-Caucasus over the last two decades has had a detrimental effect on agricultural labor productivity and rural family incomes. Transition countries in the former USSR cannot, however, encourage exits from agriculture (as, for instance, in east Germany or the Czech Republic) due to the risk of mass rural–urban migration, which may exacerbate growing urban unemployment. With large rural populations, state budgets would be unable to deal with a new wave of unemployed in urban areas.
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