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What issues face the Trump administration?

President Donald Trump won the White House on a campaign which promised a tough stance on immigration, backing off from international trade deals such as NAFTA and TPP, and enhancing childcare tax breaks. The outcomes of a Trump administration for labor markets remain highly uncertain as the president follows through on his campaign pledges.

  • The labor market in the US, 2000–2016

    Recovery from the Great Recession is essentially complete, but there are difficult unemployment and wage issues

    Daniel S. Hamermesh, April 2017
    As the largest economy in the world, the US labor market is crucial to the economic well-being of citizens worldwide as well as, of course, that of its own citizens. Since 2000 the US labor market has undergone substantial changes, both reflecting the Great Recession, but also resulting from some striking trends. Most interesting have been a remarkable drop in the labor force participation rate, reversing a nearly 50-year trend; the nearly full recovery of unemployment from the depths of the Great Recession; and the little-known continuing growth in post-inflation average earnings.
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  • Legalizing undocumented immigrants

    While legalization benefits most undocumented immigrants, deciding how to regularize them is challenging

    Cynthia Bansak, March 2016
    Addressing unauthorized immigration is controversial. Countries have adopted a variety of legalization programs, ranging from temporary visa programs to naturalization. Research in the US focused on past amnesty programs finds improved labor market outcomes for newly legalized immigrants. Findings are more mixed for European countries. Studies suggest that regularization of undocumented immigrants can result in increased use of public benefits and reduced formal labor market participation. Despite widespread disagreement, legalization is widely used in practice.
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  • Does corruption promote emigration?

    Corruption is a driving force of emigration, especially for high-skilled workers, but also for other workers

    Friedrich Schneider, October 2015
    Knowing whether corruption leads to higher emigration rates—and among which groups—is important because most labor emigration is from developing to developed countries. If corruption leads highly-skilled and highly-educated workers to leave developing countries, it can result in a shortage of skilled labor and slower economic growth. In turn, this leads to higher unemployment, lowering the returns to human capital and encouraging further emigration. Corruption also shifts public spending from health and education to sectors with less transparency in spending, disadvantaging lower-skilled workers and encouraging them to emigrate.
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  • Should the earned income tax credit rise for childless adults?

    The earned income tax credit raises income and work incentives among low-income parents but little goes to adults without children

    Harry J. Holzer, September 2015
    The earned income tax credit provides important benefits to low-income families with children in the US. At an annual cost of about $60 billion, it increases the incomes of such families while encouraging parents to work more by subsidizing their incomes. But low-income adults without children and non-custodial parents receive only very low payments under the program, providing them with little income benefits or work incentives. Many of these adults are low-income young men whose wages and employment rates have been declining for years and who might benefit substantially from expanded eligibility for the earned income tax credit.
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  • The promises and pitfalls of universal early education

    Universal early education can be beneficial, and more so for the poor, but quality matters

    Elizabeth U. Cascio, January 2015
    There is widespread interest in universal early education, both to promote child development and to support maternal employment. Positive long-term findings from small-scale early education interventions for low-income children in the US have greatly influenced the public discussion. However, such findings may be of limited value for policymakers considering larger-scale, more widely accessible programs. Instead, the best insight into the potential impacts of universal early education comes from analysis of these programs themselves, operating at scale. This growing research base suggests that universal early education can benefit both children and families, but quality matters.
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  • Environmental regulations and labor markets

    Balancing the benefits of environmental regulations for everyone and the costs to workers and firms

    Olivier Deschenes, July 2014
    Environmental regulations such as air quality standards can lead to notable improvements in ambient air quality and to related health benefits. 
But they impose additional production costs on firms and may reduce productivity, earnings, and employment, especially in sectors exposed to trade and intensive in labor. The limited empirical evidence suggests that the benefits are likely to outweigh 
the costs.
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