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What issues face the Trump administration?

President Donald Trump won the White House on a campaign which promised a tough stance on immigration, backing off from international trade deals such as NAFTA and TPP, and enhancing childcare tax breaks. The outcomes of a Trump administration for labor markets remain highly uncertain as the president follows through on his campaign pledges.

  • International trade regulation and job creation Updated

    Trade policy is not an employment policy and should not be expected to have major effects on overall employment

    Trade regulation can create jobs in the sectors it protects or promotes, but almost always at the expense of destroying a roughly equivalent number of jobs elsewhere in the economy. At a product-specific or micro level and in the short term, controlling trade could reduce the offending imports and save jobs, but for the economy as a whole and in the long term, this has neither theoretical support nor evidence in its favor. Given that protection may have other—usually adverse—effects, understanding the difficulties in using it to manage employment is important for economic policy.
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  • The labor market in the US, 2000–2018 Updated

    Recovery from the Great Recession is complete, but there are difficult unemployment and wage problems

    As the largest economy in the world, the US labor market is crucial to the economic well-being of citizens worldwide as well, of course, that of its own citizens. Since 2000 the US labor market has undergone substantial changes, both reflecting the Great Recession, but also resulting from some striking trends. Most interesting have been a remarkable drop in the labor force participation rate, reversing a nearly 50-year trend; the full recovery of unemployment from the depths of the Great Recession; and the little-known continuing growth in post-inflation average earnings.
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  • Crime and immigration Updated

    Do poor labor market opportunities lead to migrant crime?

    Brian Bell, January 2019
    Immigration is one of the most important policy debates in Western countries. However, one aspect of the debate is often mischaracterized by accusations that higher levels of immigration lead to higher levels of crime. The evidence, based on empirical studies of many countries, indicates that there is no simple link between immigration and crime, but legalizing the status of immigrants has beneficial effects on crime rates. Crucially, the evidence points to substantial differences in the impact on property crime, depending on the labor market opportunities of immigrant groups.
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  • Employment effects of minimum wages Updated

    When minimum wages are introduced or raised, are there fewer jobs?

    David Neumark, December 2018
    The potential benefits of higher minimum wages come from the higher wages for affected workers, some of whom are in poor or low-income families. The potential downside is that a higher minimum wage may discourage firms from employing the low-wage, low-skill workers that minimum wages are intended to help. If minimum wages reduce employment of low-skill workers, then minimum wages are not a “free lunch” with which to help poor and low-income families, but instead pose a trade-off of benefits for some versus costs for others. Research findings are not unanimous, but especially for the US, evidence suggests that minimum wages reduce the jobs available to low-skill workers.
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  • Environmental regulations and labor markets Updated

    Balancing the benefits of environmental regulations for everyone and the costs to workers and firms

    Olivier Deschenes, November 2018
    Environmental regulations such as air quality standards can lead to notable improvements in ambient air quality and to related health benefits. But they impose additional production costs on firms and may reduce productivity, earnings, and employment, especially in sectors exposed to trade and intensive in labor and energy. Growing empirical evidence suggests that the benefits are likely to outweigh the costs.
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  • Legalizing undocumented immigrants

    While legalization benefits most undocumented immigrants, deciding how to regularize them is challenging

    Cynthia Bansak, March 2016
    Addressing unauthorized immigration is controversial. Countries have adopted a variety of legalization programs, ranging from temporary visa programs to naturalization. Research in the US focused on past amnesty programs finds improved labor market outcomes for newly legalized immigrants. Findings are more mixed for European countries. Studies suggest that regularization of undocumented immigrants can result in increased use of public benefits and reduced formal labor market participation. Despite widespread disagreement, legalization is widely used in practice.
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