key topic

Future of Europe

Last year’s Brexit result sent shockwaves through the European Union. 2017 could also be a year of upheaval with important elections in Germany, and also the UK, as well as the start of the Brexit negotiations. Perhaps the results of the Dutch and French elections indicate that much of the storm has passed, but perhaps not.

The Global Financial Crisis caused a recession across Europe, the effects of which are still being felt today, largely in Southern European countries. Many of those countries are suffering or recovering from high youth unemployment. This, along with anti-migrant/anti-refugee feelings, has caused some to turn to populist movements. Furthermore, Southern European countries with high youth unemployment have very low birth rates which will impact productivity and pensions as their populations age. What are the long-term effects of recessions and what can be done to prevent the growth of populist sentiment?

  • Unemployment and the role of supranational policies

    EU supranational policies should be more active at promoting institutional reforms that reduce unemployment

    Juan F. Jimeno, October 2017
    Unemployment in Europe is excessively high on average, and is divergent across countries and population groups within countries. On the one hand, over the past decades, national governments have implemented incomplete institutional reforms to amend dysfunctional labor markets. On the other hand, EU supranational policies—those that transcend national boundaries and governments—have offered only limited financial support for active labor market policies, instead of promoting structural reforms aimed at improving the functioning of European labor markets. Better coordination and a wider scope of EU supranational policies is needed to fight unemployment more effectively.
    MoreLess
  • Do firms’ wage-setting powers increase during recessions?

    Monopsony models question the classic view of wage-setting and reveal a new reason why wages may decrease during recessions

    Todd Sorensen, April 2017
    Traditional models of the labor market typically assume that wages are set by the market, not the firm. However, over the last 15 years, a growing body of empirical research has provided evidence against this assumption. Recent studies suggest that a monopsonistic model, where individual firms and not the market set wages, may be more appropriate. This model attributes more wage-setting power to firms, particularly during economic downturns, which helps explain why wages decrease during recessions. This holds important implications for policymakers attempting to combat lost worker income during economic downturns.
    MoreLess
  • Do youths graduating in a recession incur permanent losses?

    Penalties may last ten years or more, especially for high-educated youth and in rigid labor markets

    Bart Cockx, August 2016
    The Great Recession that began in 2008–2009 dramatically increased youth unemployment. But did it have long-lasting, adverse effects on the careers of youths? Are cohorts that graduate during a recession doomed to fall permanently behind those that graduate at other times? Are the impacts different for low- and high-educated individuals? If recessions impose penalties that persist over time, then more government outlays are justified to stabilize economic activity. Scientific evidence from a variety of countries shows that rigid labor markets can reinforce the persistence of these setbacks, which has important policy implications.
    MoreLess
  • Effects of entering adulthood during a recession

    Recent declines in youth employment, net worth, and family formation could permanently affect financial well-being

    Lisa Dettling, April 2016
    Current cohorts of young adults entered adulthood during an international labor and housing market crisis of a severity not experienced since the Great Depression. Concerns have arisen over the impacts on young adults’ employment, income, wealth, and living arrangements, and about whether these young adults constitute a “scarred generation” that will suffer permanent contractions in financial well-being. If true, knowing the mechanisms through which young adults’ finances have been affected has important implications for policy measures that could improve the financial well-being of today’s young adults in the present and future.
    MoreLess
  • The effects of recessions on family formation

    Fertility and marriage rates are pro-cyclical in many countries, but the longer-term consequences are inconclusive

    Ayako Kondo, March 2016
    Low fertility rates are a cause of social concern in many developed countries, with growing youth unemployment often being considered a primary cause. However, economic theory is not conclusive about whether deterioration in youth employment prospects actually discourages family formation or for how long the effect might persist. In addition, recessions can affect the divorce rate. Therefore, understanding the relationship between labor market conditions and family formation can provide important insights into the type of policies that would be most effective in promoting fertility.
    MoreLess
  • Wage coordination in new and old EU member states

    Stronger wage coordination and higher union density are associated with lower unemployment and higher inflation

    Riccardo Rovelli, January 2016
    Aside from employment protection laws, which have been converging, other labor market institutions in new and old EU member states, such as wage bargaining coordination and labor union density, still differ considerably. These labor market institutions also differ among the new EU member states, with the Baltic countries being much more liberal than the others. Research that pools data on old and new EU member states shows that wage coordination mechanisms can improve a country’s macroeconomic performance. Stronger wage coordination and higher union density reduce the response of inflation to the business cycle.
    MoreLess
show more